Studies

Study series · 180 tests

Ryan's iFVG model on NQ, gold and EURUSD

Written down before any run: the core rule on 4 timeframe pairings and 3 markets (NQ futures, gold and EURUSD), 8 other exits on the same entries (the RR study), and 12 of Ryan’s stronger-setup filters on the two fastest pairings: 180 tests. Each ran twice: before trading costs, which gives the verdict, and with an estimate of average costs. 119 of 180 averaged above zero out of sample, 9 graded promising. Every test is shown below with equal weight.

Tests
180
Markets
NQ futures, Gold, EURUSD
Candles
5m, 15m, 1H and 4H entries
Data
Oct 2021 – Oct 2026
Out of sample
May 2023 – Oct 2026
Published
4 Nov 2026

Whose model this is

The iFVG model is taught by the trader and educator Ryan (DodgysDD), in public videos. This page tests IDFX’s mechanical reading of it: Ryan’s rules, made exact so a computer can run them. Ryan has not seen or endorsed this test. Ryan reads the draw on liquidity by eye, mostly on 1 to 3-minute charts, so this tests the rules as written here, not Ryan’s trading.

Engine verdict, all 180 testsBefore trading costs Out-of-sample
Not this time

Before trading costs, 171 of 180 read “not this time” and 9 read promising, about what chance alone gives at 180 tries. None of the core tests read promising. All 10 that read promising in either reading (9 before costs, 1 more only with costs) were run again, unchanged, on unseen data from Jan 2018 to Sept 2021: 0 of 10 held up. With the average-costs estimate, 8 of 180 read promising. Every test below has equal weight; read any positive number as 1 of 180.

The confirmation on unseen data

TestMain run, per tradeUnseen data, per tradeShuffled as goodWith costs, per tradeVerdict there
1H / Daily · 1.5R target · Gold+0.177R × 1211 of 180+0.170R × 1098 of 40+0.145Rnot this time
1H / Daily · 2R target · Gold+0.304R × 1151 of 180+0.229R × 1057 of 40+0.216Rnot this time
1H / Daily · 5R target · NQ futures+0.580R × 1081 of 180+0.064R × 7416 of 40+0.053Rnot this time
5m / 1H · displacement candle · Gold+0.327R × 671 of 180−0.224R × 3436 of 40−0.313Rnot this time
5m / 1H · equal highs / lows target · Gold+0.392R × 351 of 180+0.082R × 2520 of 40−0.013Rnot this time
5m / 1H · half at 1R, then breakeven · Gold+0.142R × 1361 of 180+0.094R × 8517 of 40−0.007Rnot this time
5m / 1H · 1R target · Gold+0.184R × 1361 of 180+0.075R × 8627 of 40−0.038Rnot this time
5m / 1H · 1.5R target · Gold+0.191R × 1361 of 180+0.139R × 8623 of 40+0.087Rnot this time
5m / 1H · 2R target · Gold+0.195R × 1361 of 180+0.244R × 8513 of 40+0.108Rnot this time
5m / 1H · 08:30–11:00 New York · Gold+0.177R × 2131 of 180+0.042R × 15121 of 40−0.061Rnot this time

Rerun as the rules set out before any run. Data for the unseen years: NQ: the back-adjusted futures series; XAUUSD: Dukascopy 5-minute bid candles (not the broker feed). Out of sample, before trading costs unless marked. Seven of the ten are gold 5-minute tests built on the same signals, so they are largely one finding read seven ways.

The model

Sweep, gap, inversion

Price runs to where stop orders sit, an obvious high or low, and takes them out: the sweep. On the way it usually leaves a fair value gap, three candles whose wicks do not overlap. When a candle body then closes back through the whole gap, the gap is inverted: the sweep looks like a trap and the move has turned. Buy that close, stop under the swept low, aim for the obvious level on the other side. Shorts are the mirror.

  1. 1
    Liquidity

    The previous day’s high and low, the latest swing on the context timeframe, the Asia and London ranges (5m and 15m), and the latest swing on the entry bars.

  2. 2
    Sweep

    A leg trades through one of those levels, which had held until the leg began.

  3. 3
    One gap, inverted

    A fair value gap formed in that leg, at most 6 candles before, and a candle body closes beyond the whole gap. On 5m and 15m, only between 09:30 and 11:00 New York.

  4. 4
    Room

    The nearest untaken level on the other side is at least 1R away.

  5. 5
    Trade

    Enter at the next open, stop at the swept extreme, target that level; on 5m and 15m, flat at 16:00. One position at a time, two a day at most, 1% risk.

The core rule ran on four pairings of entry and context candles: 5m with 1H (the closest to Ryan’s own 1 to 3-minute entries), 15m with 4H, 1H with Daily and 4H with Daily. The RR study kept the same entries and changed only the exit; each filter kept the core and added one of Ryan’s stronger-setup conditions.

Out-of-sample results

The core rule, on four timeframe pairings

Before trading costs Out-of-sample

180 tests were run: the core rule on 4 timeframe pairings and 3 markets, 8 other exits on the same entries (the RR study), and 12 of Ryan's stronger-setup filters on the two fastest pairings. With that many, about nine can pass the 5% shuffled-price bar by chance alone even if none has an edge. All are listed with equal weight; read any positive result as '1 of 180'.

NQ futures
Gold
EURUSD
5m entry, 1H context: the core rule
5m / 1H · core · NQ futuresNot this time−0.101Rper trade−13.2Rtotal131trades 2 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 16 of 40This test 5m / 1H · core · GoldNot this time+0.159Rper trade1 of 180+21.5Rtotal135trades 5 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 2 of 40This test 5m / 1H · core · EURUSDNot this time−0.015Rper trade−1.9Rtotal124trades 3 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 14 of 40This test
15m entry, 4H context: the core rule
15m / 4H · core · NQ futuresNot this time+0.204Rper trade1 of 180+9.8Rtotal48trades 2 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 6 of 40This test 15m / 4H · core · GoldNot this time+0.076Rper trade1 of 180+2.2Rtotal29trades 3 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 24 of 40This test 15m / 4H · core · EURUSDNot this time+0.112Rper trade1 of 180+4.5Rtotal40trades 3 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 17 of 40This test
1H entry, daily context: the core rule
1H / Daily · core · NQ futuresNot this time+0.283Rper trade1 of 180+35.7Rtotal126trades 3 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 19 of 40This test 1H / Daily · core · GoldNot this time+0.129Rper trade1 of 180+14.8Rtotal115trades 2 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 7 of 40This test 1H / Daily · core · EURUSDNot this time+0.120Rper trade1 of 180+16.3Rtotal136trades 3 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 6 of 40This test
4H entry, daily context: the core rule
4H / Daily · core · NQ futuresNot this time−0.233Rper trade−4.7Rtotal20trades 2 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 30 of 40This test 4H / Daily · core · GoldNot this time−0.030Rper trade−0.5Rtotal15trades 2 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 5 of 40This test 4H / Daily · core · EURUSDNot this time−0.016Rper trade−0.3Rtotal21trades 2 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 24 of 40This test

Each curve is the test windows stitched end to end, in R, on the same time axis. "Windows up": test windows with a positive average. "Shuffled price as good": how many of the engine's reshuffled price series did as well or better; the fewest for any of the 180 tests was 0.

Every test

All 180, with equal weight

Before trading costs Out-of-sample
TestTradesWin ratePer tradeWith costsTotalProfit factorWindows upShuffled as goodVerdict
5m / 1H · core · NQ futures13133.6%−0.101R−0.112R−13.2R0.842 of 516 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · core · Gold13547.4%+0.159R1 of 180+0.110R1 of 180+21.5R1.325 of 52 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · core · EURUSD12437.1%−0.015R−0.138R−1.9R0.963 of 514 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · core · NQ futures4847.9%+0.204R1 of 180+0.195R1 of 180+9.8R1.332 of 56 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · core · Gold2944.8%+0.076R1 of 180+0.039R1 of 180+2.2R1.163 of 524 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · core · EURUSD4052.5%+0.112R1 of 180+0.034R1 of 180+4.5R1.263 of 517 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · core · NQ futures12638.9%+0.283R1 of 180+0.275R1 of 180+35.7R1.453 of 519 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · core · Gold11536.5%+0.129R1 of 180+0.106R1 of 180+14.8R1.222 of 57 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · core · EURUSD13634.6%+0.120R1 of 180+0.059R1 of 180+16.3R1.153 of 56 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · core · NQ futures2030.0%−0.233R−0.238R−4.7R0.642 of 530 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · core · Gold1540.0%−0.030R−0.041R−0.5R1.112 of 55 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · core · EURUSD2142.9%−0.016R−0.050R−0.3R0.952 of 524 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 1R target · NQ futures13345.9%−0.078R−0.085R−10.3R0.842 of 523 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 1R target · Gold13658.8%+0.184R1 of 180+0.124R1 of 180+25.0R1.494 of 52 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 1R target · EURUSD12450.8%+0.022R1 of 180−0.103R+2.7R1.043 of 59 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 1R target · NQ futures4854.2%+0.047R1 of 180+0.041R1 of 180+2.2R1.133 of 518 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 1R target · Gold2948.3%−0.039R−0.099R−1.1R0.903 of 526 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 1R target · EURUSD4055.0%+0.066R1 of 180+0.001R1 of 180+2.6R1.162 of 515 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 1R target · NQ futures13455.2%+0.085R1 of 180+0.080R1 of 180+11.3R1.144 of 512 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 1R target · Gold12653.2%+0.063R1 of 180+0.034R1 of 180+8.0R1.152 of 56 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 1R target · EURUSD15251.3%+0.022R1 of 180−0.054R+3.4R1.033 of 522 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 1R target · NQ futures2035.0%−0.344R−0.347R−6.9R0.451 of 536 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 1R target · Gold1566.7%+0.333R1 of 180+0.193R1 of 180+5.0R2.093 of 52 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 1R target · EURUSD2268.2%+0.338R1 of 180+0.311R1 of 180+7.4R2.103 of 55 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 1.5R target · NQ futures13138.2%−0.056R−0.083R−7.3R0.912 of 59 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 1.5R target · Gold13651.5%+0.191R1 of 180+0.139R1 of 180+25.9R1.435 of 51 of 40Strong
5m / 1H · 1.5R target · EURUSD12443.5%+0.063R1 of 180−0.082R+7.8R1.114 of 59 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 1.5R target · NQ futures4847.9%+0.071R1 of 180+0.065R1 of 180+3.4R1.172 of 512 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 1.5R target · Gold2944.8%−0.093R−0.121R−2.7R0.793 of 526 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 1.5R target · EURUSD4055.0%+0.155R1 of 180+0.088R1 of 180+6.2R1.384 of 518 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 1.5R target · NQ futures13146.6%+0.136R1 of 180+0.113R1 of 180+17.8R1.205 of 55 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 1.5R target · Gold12147.1%+0.177R1 of 180+0.164R1 of 180+21.4R1.363 of 51 of 40Strong
1H / Daily · 1.5R target · EURUSD13842.8%+0.064R1 of 180+0.015R1 of 180+8.9R1.101 of 515 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 1.5R target · NQ futures2030.0%−0.319R−0.322R−6.4R0.531 of 538 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 1.5R target · Gold1526.7%−0.333R−0.341R−5.0R0.541 of 520 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 1.5R target · EURUSD2147.6%+0.140R1 of 180−0.006R+2.9R1.253 of 520 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 2R target · NQ futures13132.8%−0.081R−0.090R−10.6R0.872 of 514 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 2R target · Gold13647.1%+0.195R1 of 180+0.137R1 of 180+26.6R1.405 of 51 of 40Strong
5m / 1H · 2R target · EURUSD12336.6%−0.008R−0.125R−1.0R0.973 of 522 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 2R target · NQ futures4847.9%+0.176R1 of 180+0.169R1 of 180+8.4R1.313 of 54 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 2R target · Gold2944.8%−0.041R−0.069R−1.2R0.913 of 523 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 2R target · EURUSD4052.5%+0.102R1 of 180+0.026R1 of 180+4.1R1.233 of 522 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 2R target · NQ futures12642.1%+0.225R1 of 180+0.220R1 of 180+28.3R1.405 of 54 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 2R target · Gold11543.5%+0.304R1 of 180+0.291R1 of 180+35.0R1.503 of 50 of 40Strong
1H / Daily · 2R target · EURUSD13135.9%+0.061R1 of 180+0.012R1 of 180+8.0R1.074 of 519 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 2R target · NQ futures2030.0%−0.194R−0.197R−3.9R0.701 of 530 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 2R target · Gold1526.7%−0.200R−0.207R−3.0R0.711 of 525 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 2R target · EURUSD2138.1%+0.069R1 of 180+0.041R1 of 180+1.4R1.102 of 526 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 3R target · NQ futures13129.0%−0.092R−0.108R−12.0R0.852 of 521 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 3R target · Gold13543.0%+0.133R1 of 180+0.075R1 of 180+18.0R1.243 of 50 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 3R target · EURUSD12234.4%+0.011R1 of 180−0.102R+1.4R1.003 of 512 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 3R target · NQ futures4843.8%+0.146R1 of 180+0.138R1 of 180+7.0R1.202 of 59 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 3R target · Gold2944.8%+0.062R1 of 180+0.034R1 of 180+1.8R1.153 of 518 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 3R target · EURUSD4052.5%+0.145R1 of 180−0.033R+5.8R1.333 of 517 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 3R target · NQ futures12235.3%+0.355R1 of 180+0.350R1 of 180+43.3R1.554 of 53 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 3R target · Gold10731.8%+0.262R1 of 180+0.174R1 of 180+28.1R1.422 of 53 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 3R target · EURUSD11528.7%+0.122R1 of 180+0.036R1 of 180+14.0R1.144 of 57 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 3R target · NQ futures2025.0%−0.144R−0.147R−2.9R0.783 of 533 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 3R target · Gold1323.1%−0.077R−0.085R−1.0R0.882 of 522 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 3R target · EURUSD2128.6%+0.021R1 of 180−0.007R+0.4R1.022 of 529 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 4R target · NQ futures13128.2%−0.125R−0.136R−16.4R0.792 of 522 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 4R target · Gold13543.0%+0.127R1 of 180+0.081R1 of 180+17.1R1.224 of 52 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 4R target · EURUSD12234.4%+0.108R1 of 180−0.074R+13.2R1.163 of 511 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 4R target · NQ futures4839.6%+0.008R1 of 180−0.001R+0.4R1.042 of 515 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 4R target · Gold2944.8%+0.119R1 of 180+0.091R1 of 180+3.5R1.263 of 57 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 4R target · EURUSD4050.0%+0.045R1 of 180−0.033R+1.8R1.092 of 526 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 4R target · NQ futures11530.4%+0.423R1 of 180+0.417R1 of 180+48.6R1.544 of 56 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 4R target · Gold10028.0%+0.381R1 of 180+0.367R1 of 180+38.1R1.524 of 520 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 4R target · EURUSD10924.8%+0.181R1 of 180+0.131R1 of 180+19.8R1.213 of 56 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 4R target · NQ futures2025.0%+0.056R1 of 180+0.052R1 of 180+1.1R1.003 of 539 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 4R target · Gold1323.1%+0.154R1 of 180+0.146R1 of 180+2.0R1.172 of 523 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 4R target · EURUSD2128.6%+0.259R1 of 180+0.231R1 of 180+5.4R1.342 of 518 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 5R target · NQ futures13127.5%−0.161R−0.172R−21.0R0.732 of 515 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 5R target · Gold13543.0%+0.094R1 of 180+0.047R1 of 180+12.7R1.164 of 53 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 5R target · EURUSD12234.4%+0.077R1 of 180−0.045R+9.4R1.113 of 513 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 5R target · NQ futures4839.6%+0.029R1 of 180+0.020R1 of 180+1.4R1.062 of 517 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 5R target · Gold2944.8%+0.082R1 of 180+0.052R1 of 180+2.4R1.163 of 510 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 5R target · EURUSD4050.0%+0.045R1 of 180−0.033R+1.8R1.092 of 527 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 5R target · NQ futures10828.7%+0.580R1 of 180+0.519R1 of 180+62.6R1.774 of 51 of 40Strong
1H / Daily · 5R target · Gold9719.6%+0.133R1 of 180+0.119R1 of 180+12.9R1.152 of 517 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · 5R target · EURUSD10421.1%+0.215R1 of 180+0.164R1 of 180+22.3R1.253 of 525 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 5R target · NQ futures1921.1%+0.006R1 of 180+0.003R1 of 180+0.1R0.913 of 539 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 5R target · Gold1323.1%+0.385R1 of 180+0.377R1 of 180+5.0R1.462 of 516 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · 5R target · EURUSD2123.8%+0.212R1 of 180+0.184R1 of 180+4.4R1.252 of 519 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · second level as target · NQ futures13129.8%−0.075R−0.087R−9.8R0.882 of 517 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · second level as target · Gold13543.7%+0.121R1 of 180+0.072R1 of 180+16.4R1.224 of 51 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · second level as target · EURUSD12334.1%+0.034R1 of 180−0.091R+4.2R1.043 of 513 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · second level as target · NQ futures4841.7%+0.159R1 of 180+0.149R1 of 180+7.6R1.212 of 510 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · second level as target · Gold2944.8%+0.361R1 of 180+0.310R1 of 180+10.5R1.693 of 55 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · second level as target · EURUSD4050.0%+0.050R1 of 180−0.028R+2.0R1.102 of 524 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · second level as target · NQ futures8518.8%+0.056R1 of 180+0.048R1 of 180+4.8R1.082 of 517 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · second level as target · Gold5621.4%+1.364R1 of 180+1.331R1 of 180+76.4R2.644 of 53 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · second level as target · EURUSD8518.8%+0.186R1 of 180+0.130R1 of 180+15.8R1.192 of 55 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · second level as target · NQ futures1915.8%−0.118R−0.127R−2.3R0.832 of 534 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · second level as target · Gold1118.2%−0.041R−0.052R−0.5R0.941 of 538 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · second level as target · EURUSD1910.5%−0.473R−0.503R−9.0R0.460 of 532 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · half at 1R, then breakeven · NQ futures13345.9%−0.125R−0.134R−16.6R0.772 of 523 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · half at 1R, then breakeven · Gold13658.8%+0.142R1 of 180+0.081R1 of 180+19.3R1.354 of 50 of 40Strong
5m / 1H · half at 1R, then breakeven · EURUSD12450.8%+0.015R1 of 180−0.104R+1.9R1.023 of 512 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · half at 1R, then breakeven · NQ futures4854.2%+0.049R1 of 180+0.042R1 of 180+2.3R1.172 of 517 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · half at 1R, then breakeven · Gold2948.3%−0.066R−0.111R−1.9R0.853 of 523 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · half at 1R, then breakeven · EURUSD4055.0%+0.060R1 of 180−0.010R+2.4R1.144 of 519 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · half at 1R, then breakeven · NQ futures12957.4%+0.074R1 of 180+0.068R1 of 180+9.5R1.134 of 54 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · half at 1R, then breakeven · Gold12351.2%−0.029R−0.045R−3.6R0.952 of 517 of 40Not this time
1H / Daily · half at 1R, then breakeven · EURUSD14452.8%+0.035R1 of 180−0.042R+5.0R1.062 of 513 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · half at 1R, then breakeven · NQ futures2040.0%−0.329R−0.332R−6.6R0.421 of 538 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · half at 1R, then breakeven · Gold1566.7%+0.195R1 of 180+0.087R1 of 180+2.9R1.733 of 52 of 40Not this time
4H / Daily · half at 1R, then breakeven · EURUSD2268.2%+0.135R1 of 180+0.105R1 of 180+3.0R1.433 of 59 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · sweep into a higher-timeframe gap · NQ futures8234.1%−0.108R−0.119R−8.9R0.821 of 524 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · sweep into a higher-timeframe gap · Gold7152.1%+0.186R1 of 180+0.137R1 of 180+13.2R1.445 of 52 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · sweep into a higher-timeframe gap · EURUSD7537.3%−0.030R−0.150R−2.2R0.942 of 536 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · sweep into a higher-timeframe gap · NQ futures2556.0%+0.494R1 of 180+0.482R1 of 180+12.3R2.134 of 51 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · sweep into a higher-timeframe gap · Gold1435.7%−0.226R−0.254R−3.2R0.622 of 537 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · sweep into a higher-timeframe gap · EURUSD2634.6%−0.272R−0.355R−7.1R0.532 of 539 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · one-sided sweep · NQ futures1540.0%−0.018R−0.031R−0.3R0.992 of 512 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · one-sided sweep · Gold2343.5%+0.381R1 of 180+0.330R1 of 180+8.8R1.704 of 59 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · one-sided sweep · EURUSD1625.0%−0.430R−0.542R−6.9R0.322 of 53 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · one-sided sweep · NQ futures683.3%+0.934R1 of 180+0.917R1 of 180+5.6R6.863 of 535 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · one-sided sweep · Gold875.0%+0.521R1 of 180+0.489R1 of 180+4.2R3.134 of 59 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · one-sided sweep · EURUSD3100.0%+1.567R1 of 180+1.483R1 of 180+4.7R999.002 of 537 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · displacement candle · NQ futures8135.8%−0.055R−0.066R−4.5R0.903 of 513 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · displacement candle · Gold6756.7%+0.327R1 of 180+0.283R1 of 180+21.9R1.853 of 50 of 40Strong
5m / 1H · displacement candle · EURUSD6435.9%−0.063R−0.181R−4.0R0.882 of 525 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · displacement candle · NQ futures2343.5%+0.083R1 of 180+0.076R1 of 180+1.9R1.233 of 59 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · displacement candle · Gold1758.8%+0.297R1 of 180+0.263R1 of 180+5.0R2.143 of 52 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · displacement candle · EURUSD2045.0%−0.060R−0.140R−1.2R0.852 of 536 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · fast gap · NQ futures13837.7%+0.003R1 of 180−0.009R+0.5R1.003 of 55 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · fast gap · Gold14335.7%−0.137R−0.180R−19.5R0.761 of 516 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · fast gap · EURUSD15433.1%−0.174R−0.293R−26.8R0.711 of 525 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · fast gap · NQ futures4643.5%+0.106R1 of 180+0.097R1 of 180+4.9R1.203 of 515 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · fast gap · Gold3847.4%+0.060R1 of 180+0.025R1 of 180+2.3R1.122 of 515 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · fast gap · EURUSD4351.2%+0.121R1 of 180+0.041R1 of 180+5.2R1.263 of 523 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 09:30–10:00 New York · NQ futures6435.9%−0.064R−0.076R−4.1R0.902 of 532 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 09:30–10:00 New York · Gold4645.6%+0.105R1 of 180+0.061R1 of 180+4.8R1.194 of 513 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 09:30–10:00 New York · EURUSD3938.5%+0.085R1 of 180−0.043R+3.3R1.123 of 55 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 09:30–10:00 New York · NQ futures2454.2%+0.491R1 of 180+0.480R1 of 180+11.8R2.053 of 50 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 09:30–10:00 New York · Gold1145.5%−0.042R−0.074R−0.5R0.902 of 521 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 09:30–10:00 New York · EURUSD1154.5%+0.344R1 of 180+0.235R1 of 180+3.8R1.732 of 518 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 08:30–11:00 New York · NQ futures21133.2%−0.063R−0.079R−13.2R0.902 of 512 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · 08:30–11:00 New York · Gold21344.1%+0.177R1 of 180+0.123R1 of 180+37.8R1.325 of 50 of 40Strong
5m / 1H · 08:30–11:00 New York · EURUSD22240.1%+0.133R1 of 180+0.004R1 of 180+29.4R1.215 of 54 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 08:30–11:00 New York · NQ futures8135.8%−0.092R−0.102R−7.4R0.851 of 533 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 08:30–11:00 New York · Gold5540.0%+0.002R1 of 180−0.035R+0.1R0.983 of 525 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · 08:30–11:00 New York · EURUSD7146.5%+0.032R1 of 180−0.055R+2.3R1.053 of 531 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · discount / premium · NQ futures10235.3%−0.043R−0.055R−4.4R0.932 of 57 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · discount / premium · Gold9745.4%+0.217R1 of 180+0.166R1 of 180+21.0R1.434 of 52 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · discount / premium · EURUSD8330.1%−0.189R−0.307R−15.7R0.691 of 519 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · discount / premium · NQ futures3250.0%+0.225R1 of 180+0.215R1 of 180+7.2R1.383 of 54 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · discount / premium · Gold1560.0%+0.240R1 of 180+0.212R1 of 180+3.6R1.604 of 517 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · discount / premium · EURUSD3250.0%+0.094R1 of 180+0.015R1 of 180+3.0R1.214 of 522 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · clean inverting close · NQ futures10533.3%−0.104R−0.116R−10.9R0.831 of 518 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · clean inverting close · Gold11343.4%+0.113R1 of 180+0.062R1 of 180+12.8R1.214 of 53 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · clean inverting close · EURUSD11137.8%−0.005R−0.131R−0.6R0.972 of 512 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · clean inverting close · NQ futures3053.3%+0.408R1 of 180+0.399R1 of 180+12.2R1.733 of 53 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · clean inverting close · Gold2544.0%+0.095R1 of 180+0.056R1 of 180+2.4R1.213 of 515 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · clean inverting close · EURUSD3148.4%+0.016R1 of 180−0.061R+0.5R1.023 of 529 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · equal highs / lows target · NQ futures3030.0%−0.203R−0.214R−6.1R0.711 of 527 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · equal highs / lows target · Gold3551.4%+0.392R1 of 180+0.346R1 of 180+13.7R1.823 of 50 of 40Strong
5m / 1H · equal highs / lows target · EURUSD2540.0%−0.133R−0.253R−3.3R0.763 of 524 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · equal highs / lows target · NQ futures425.0%−0.097R−0.106R−0.4R0.751 of 534 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · equal highs / lows target · Gold650.0%+0.096R1 of 180+0.056R1 of 180+0.6R1.152 of 517 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · equal highs / lows target · EURUSD944.4%−0.306R−0.369R−2.8R0.451 of 518 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · merged gaps · NQ futures16633.1%−0.144R−0.155R−23.9R0.761 of 522 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · merged gaps · Gold16046.3%+0.120R1 of 180+0.073R1 of 180+19.2R1.244 of 50 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · merged gaps · EURUSD18137.6%−0.019R−0.136R−3.5R0.952 of 522 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · merged gaps · NQ futures6443.8%+0.068R1 of 180+0.059R1 of 180+4.4R1.113 of 515 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · merged gaps · Gold4143.9%−0.019R−0.053R−0.8R0.933 of 530 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · merged gaps · EURUSD6245.2%−0.036R−0.106R−2.2R0.911 of 523 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · exit on a close back through · NQ futures13324.8%−0.068R−0.080R−9.0R0.832 of 510 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · exit on a close back through · Gold13534.1%+0.060R1 of 180+0.012R1 of 180+8.2R1.142 of 57 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · exit on a close back through · EURUSD12433.9%+0.023R1 of 180−0.102R+2.8R1.042 of 58 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · exit on a close back through · NQ futures4934.7%+0.082R1 of 180+0.072R1 of 180+4.0R1.233 of 515 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · exit on a close back through · Gold2924.1%−0.134R−0.164R−3.9R0.661 of 529 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · exit on a close back through · EURUSD4045.0%+0.205R1 of 180+0.125R1 of 180+8.2R1.745 of 53 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · A+ (four filters together) · NQ futures540.0%−0.087R−0.098R−0.4R0.862 of 514 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · A+ (four filters together) · Gold450.0%+0.456R1 of 180+0.407R1 of 180+1.8R2.372 of 521 of 40Not this time
5m / 1H · A+ (four filters together) · EURUSD333.3%−0.110R−0.224R−0.3R0.831 of 536 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · A+ (four filters together) · NQ futures2100.0%+1.698R1 of 180+1.685R1 of 180+3.4R999.002 of 523 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · A+ (four filters together) · Gold4100.0%+0.958R1 of 180+0.926R1 of 180+3.8R999.004 of 50 of 40Not this time
15m / 4H · A+ (four filters together) · EURUSD1100.0%+0.837R1 of 180+0.794R1 of 180+0.8R999.001 of 535 of 40Not this time

The core rows are the main rule; the other rows keep its entries and change the exit (the RR study) or add one of Ryan’s filters. “With costs” is the second reading, an estimate with average costs; the verdict is before costs. Read any positive number as 1 of 180. Every row is out of sample and before trading costs.

Limitations

  • Before trading costs is the verdict. The second reading adds average costs; they are estimates, not one broker’s fills, and on EURUSD 5-minute they turned most positive tests negative.
  • 180 tests. Any single good-looking row can be luck; read each one as 1 of 180.
  • Out of sample is May 2023 – Oct 2026, not the whole data period.
  • Ryan’s own trading. Ryan reads the draw on liquidity by eye, mostly on 1 to 3-minute charts, skips news and uses SMT and judgement this rule cannot. The closest testable chart is 5 minutes.
  • NQ is back-adjusted futures, so its absolute levels in past years are artificial; distances are exact.
  • A bar that touches both the stop and the target counts as a loss.
  • A backtest. Not live trading, and not a funded account.

The data

All 180 tests in one file, published as it was written, with the engine run behind each row. Each core test also has its own page and file.

/studies/ifvg.json