{ "study": "ifvg", "title": "Ryan's iFVG model on NQ, gold and EURUSD", "costs": "before trading costs", "second_reading": "estimate with average costs", "period": { "start": "2021-10-01", "end": "2026-10-26" }, "tests": 180, "collected": 180, "multiple_testing": "180 tests were run: the core rule on 4 timeframe pairings and 3 markets, 8 other exits on the same entries (the RR study), and 12 of Ryan's stronger-setup filters on the two fastest pairings. With that many, about nine can pass the 5% shuffled-price bar by chance alone even if none has an edge. All are listed with equal weight; read any positive result as '1 of 180'.", "main_rules": [ "5m-1h", "15m-4h", "1h-d", "4h-d" ], "review": "sample-trade review deferred; every trade was checked candle by candle instead (accuracy.md)", "variants": [ { "variant": "ifvg-5m-1h-nq", "slug": "ifvg-5m-1h-nq", "rule": "core-5m-1h", "rule_title": "5m entry, 1H context: the core rule", "variation": "", "group": "core", "label": "the core rule", "pair": "5m-1h", "market": "NQ", "run_id": "run_b890b1ff5d", "trades": 131, "win_rate": 33.59, "expectancy_r": -0.1006, "total_r": -13.18, "profit_factor": 0.841, "max_drawdown_r": 15.1, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 16, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_85366e818e", "trades": 131, "win_rate": 33.59, "expectancy_r": -0.1123, "total_r": -14.71, "profit_factor": 0.824, "max_drawdown_r": 15.68, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 13, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-5m-1h-gold", "slug": "ifvg-5m-1h-gold", "rule": "core-5m-1h", "rule_title": "5m entry, 1H context: the core rule", "variation": "", "group": "core", "label": "the core rule", "pair": "5m-1h", "market": "XAUUSD", "run_id": "run_9d74159864", "trades": 135, "win_rate": 47.41, "expectancy_r": 0.1591, "total_r": 21.48, "profit_factor": 1.321, "max_drawdown_r": 7.16, "folds_profitable": 5, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 2, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_8cb649633e", "trades": 135, "win_rate": 47.41, "expectancy_r": 0.11, "total_r": 14.85, "profit_factor": 1.209, "max_drawdown_r": 10.0, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 1, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-5m-1h-eurusd", "slug": "ifvg-5m-1h-eurusd", "rule": "core-5m-1h", "rule_title": "5m entry, 1H context: the core rule", "variation": "", "group": "core", "label": "the core rule", "pair": "5m-1h", "market": "EURUSD", "run_id": "run_77f9a1ac1f", "trades": 124, "win_rate": 37.1, "expectancy_r": -0.0155, "total_r": -1.93, "profit_factor": 0.958, "max_drawdown_r": 11.61, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 14, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_b7e40413db", "trades": 124, "win_rate": 37.1, "expectancy_r": -0.1378, "total_r": -17.08, "profit_factor": 0.777, "max_drawdown_r": 17.08, "folds_profitable": 1, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 9, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-15m-4h-nq", "slug": "ifvg-15m-4h-nq", "rule": "core-15m-4h", "rule_title": "15m entry, 4H context: the core rule", "variation": "", "group": "core", "label": "the core rule", "pair": "15m-4h", "market": "NQ", "run_id": "run_a0aced87d0", "trades": 48, "win_rate": 47.92, "expectancy_r": 0.2043, "total_r": 9.8, "profit_factor": 1.334, "max_drawdown_r": 7.43, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 6, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_fa69aa44de", "trades": 48, "win_rate": 47.92, "expectancy_r": 0.1946, "total_r": 9.34, "profit_factor": 1.304, "max_drawdown_r": 7.57, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 6, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-15m-4h-gold", "slug": "ifvg-15m-4h-gold", "rule": "core-15m-4h", "rule_title": "15m entry, 4H context: the core rule", "variation": "", "group": "core", "label": "the core rule", "pair": "15m-4h", "market": "XAUUSD", "run_id": "run_dc8ed87c7c", "trades": 29, "win_rate": 44.83, "expectancy_r": 0.0764, "total_r": 2.21, "profit_factor": 1.161, "max_drawdown_r": 8.54, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 24, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_b497176eb7", "trades": 29, "win_rate": 44.83, "expectancy_r": 0.039, "total_r": 1.13, "profit_factor": 1.067, "max_drawdown_r": 8.82, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 21, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-15m-4h-eurusd", "slug": "ifvg-15m-4h-eurusd", "rule": "core-15m-4h", "rule_title": "15m entry, 4H context: the core rule", "variation": "", "group": "core", "label": "the core rule", "pair": "15m-4h", "market": "EURUSD", "run_id": "run_ebdba0c745", "trades": 40, "win_rate": 52.5, "expectancy_r": 0.1123, "total_r": 4.49, "profit_factor": 1.256, "max_drawdown_r": 5.32, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 17, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_b1d5da8908", "trades": 40, "win_rate": 50.0, "expectancy_r": 0.0343, "total_r": 1.37, "profit_factor": 1.063, "max_drawdown_r": 6.2, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 15, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-1h-d-nq", "slug": "ifvg-1h-d-nq", "rule": "core-1h-d", "rule_title": "1H entry, daily context: the core rule", "variation": "", "group": "core", "label": "the core rule", "pair": "1h-d", "market": "NQ", "run_id": "run_f622e21541", "trades": 126, "win_rate": 38.89, "expectancy_r": 0.2831, "total_r": 35.67, "profit_factor": 1.445, "max_drawdown_r": 15.06, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 19, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_c446650155", "trades": 126, "win_rate": 38.89, "expectancy_r": 0.2748, "total_r": 34.63, "profit_factor": 1.431, "max_drawdown_r": 15.49, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 19, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-1h-d-gold", "slug": "ifvg-1h-d-gold", "rule": "core-1h-d", "rule_title": "1H entry, daily context: the core rule", "variation": "", "group": "core", "label": "the core rule", "pair": "1h-d", "market": "XAUUSD", "run_id": "run_3705710194", "trades": 115, "win_rate": 36.52, "expectancy_r": 0.1287, "total_r": 14.8, "profit_factor": 1.217, "max_drawdown_r": 23.9, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 7, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_1d20e3c5c0", "trades": 115, "win_rate": 36.52, "expectancy_r": 0.1061, "total_r": 12.2, "profit_factor": 1.161, "max_drawdown_r": 25.02, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 7, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-1h-d-eurusd", "slug": "ifvg-1h-d-eurusd", "rule": "core-1h-d", "rule_title": "1H entry, daily context: the core rule", "variation": "", "group": "core", "label": "the core rule", "pair": "1h-d", "market": "EURUSD", "run_id": "run_bfb16beffc", "trades": 136, "win_rate": 34.56, "expectancy_r": 0.1201, "total_r": 16.33, "profit_factor": 1.154, "max_drawdown_r": 18.52, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 6, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_e62a1a4f3c", "trades": 136, "win_rate": 34.56, "expectancy_r": 0.0587, "total_r": 7.98, "profit_factor": 1.061, "max_drawdown_r": 21.17, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 6, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-4h-d-nq", "slug": "ifvg-4h-d-nq", "rule": "core-4h-d", "rule_title": "4H entry, daily context: the core rule", "variation": "", "group": "core", "label": "the core rule", "pair": "4h-d", "market": "NQ", "run_id": "run_6c50896099", "trades": 20, "win_rate": 30.0, "expectancy_r": -0.233, "total_r": -4.66, "profit_factor": 0.644, "max_drawdown_r": 9.01, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 30, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_b55097aa2e", "trades": 20, "win_rate": 30.0, "expectancy_r": -0.2383, "total_r": -4.77, "profit_factor": 0.638, "max_drawdown_r": 9.07, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 30, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-4h-d-gold", "slug": "ifvg-4h-d-gold", "rule": "core-4h-d", "rule_title": "4H entry, daily context: the core rule", "variation": "", "group": "core", "label": "the core rule", "pair": "4h-d", "market": "XAUUSD", "run_id": "run_cdfdb7ea7d", "trades": 15, "win_rate": 40.0, "expectancy_r": -0.0305, "total_r": -0.46, "profit_factor": 1.107, "max_drawdown_r": 4.84, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 5, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_0bcb6402d6", "trades": 15, "win_rate": 40.0, "expectancy_r": -0.041, "total_r": -0.61, "profit_factor": 1.094, "max_drawdown_r": 4.96, "folds_profitable": 1, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 5, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-4h-d-eurusd", "slug": "ifvg-4h-d-eurusd", "rule": "core-4h-d", "rule_title": "4H entry, daily context: the core rule", "variation": "", "group": "core", "label": "the core rule", "pair": "4h-d", "market": "EURUSD", "run_id": "run_53f22251ef", "trades": 21, "win_rate": 42.86, "expectancy_r": -0.0162, "total_r": -0.34, "profit_factor": 0.946, "max_drawdown_r": 9.0, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 24, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_ea1d7a3164", "trades": 21, "win_rate": 42.86, "expectancy_r": -0.0495, "total_r": -1.04, "profit_factor": 0.897, "max_drawdown_r": 9.24, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 25, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-5m-1h-nq-rr1", "slug": "ifvg-5m-1h-nq-rr1", "rule": "rr1-5m-1h", "rule_title": "5m entry, 1H context: Fixed 1R target", "variation": "rr1", "group": "rr", "label": "Fixed 1R target", "pair": "5m-1h", "market": "NQ", "run_id": "run_9111d4a498", "trades": 133, "win_rate": 45.86, "expectancy_r": -0.0778, "total_r": -10.34, "profit_factor": 0.843, "max_drawdown_r": 16.28, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 23, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_bc7c033bd8", "trades": 133, "win_rate": 45.86, "expectancy_r": -0.0848, "total_r": -11.28, "profit_factor": 0.837, "max_drawdown_r": 16.51, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 17, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-5m-1h-gold-rr1", "slug": "ifvg-5m-1h-gold-rr1", "rule": "rr1-5m-1h", "rule_title": "5m entry, 1H context: Fixed 1R target", "variation": "rr1", "group": "rr", "label": "Fixed 1R target", "pair": "5m-1h", "market": "XAUUSD", "run_id": "run_4f6a459df4", "trades": 136, "win_rate": 58.82, "expectancy_r": 0.184, "total_r": 25.03, "profit_factor": 1.489, "max_drawdown_r": 6.0, "folds_profitable": 4, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 2, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_06fd85e672", "trades": 136, "win_rate": 57.35, "expectancy_r": 0.1244, "total_r": 16.92, "profit_factor": 1.31, "max_drawdown_r": 6.41, "folds_profitable": 4, "folds": 5, "verdict": "strong", "verdict_word": "promising", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 1, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-5m-1h-eurusd-rr1", "slug": "ifvg-5m-1h-eurusd-rr1", "rule": "rr1-5m-1h", "rule_title": "5m entry, 1H context: Fixed 1R target", "variation": "rr1", "group": "rr", "label": "Fixed 1R target", "pair": "5m-1h", "market": "EURUSD", "run_id": "run_e841b045b7", "trades": 124, "win_rate": 50.81, "expectancy_r": 0.0217, "total_r": 2.69, "profit_factor": 1.037, "max_drawdown_r": 8.6, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 9, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_4467cb1355", "trades": 124, "win_rate": 50.0, "expectancy_r": -0.1033, "total_r": -12.81, "profit_factor": 0.793, "max_drawdown_r": 15.22, "folds_profitable": 1, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 4, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-15m-4h-nq-rr1", "slug": "ifvg-15m-4h-nq-rr1", "rule": "rr1-15m-4h", "rule_title": "15m entry, 4H context: Fixed 1R target", "variation": "rr1", "group": "rr", "label": "Fixed 1R target", "pair": "15m-4h", "market": "NQ", "run_id": "run_94f3ac632c", "trades": 48, "win_rate": 54.17, "expectancy_r": 0.0466, "total_r": 2.24, "profit_factor": 1.133, "max_drawdown_r": 7.41, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 18, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_8b1fa5aa24", "trades": 48, "win_rate": 54.17, "expectancy_r": 0.041, "total_r": 1.97, "profit_factor": 1.143, "max_drawdown_r": 7.49, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 16, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-15m-4h-gold-rr1", "slug": "ifvg-15m-4h-gold-rr1", "rule": "rr1-15m-4h", "rule_title": "15m entry, 4H context: Fixed 1R target", "variation": "rr1", "group": "rr", "label": "Fixed 1R target", "pair": "15m-4h", "market": "XAUUSD", "run_id": "run_62f8d60b17", "trades": 29, "win_rate": 48.28, "expectancy_r": -0.0391, "total_r": -1.13, "profit_factor": 0.904, "max_drawdown_r": 7.52, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 26, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_0456bd0df1", "trades": 29, "win_rate": 44.83, "expectancy_r": -0.099, "total_r": -2.87, "profit_factor": 0.782, "max_drawdown_r": 8.82, "folds_profitable": 3, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 19, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-15m-4h-eurusd-rr1", "slug": "ifvg-15m-4h-eurusd-rr1", "rule": "rr1-15m-4h", "rule_title": "15m entry, 4H context: Fixed 1R target", "variation": "rr1", "group": "rr", "label": "Fixed 1R target", "pair": "15m-4h", "market": "EURUSD", "run_id": "run_e93a28a6a0", "trades": 40, "win_rate": 55.0, "expectancy_r": 0.0655, "total_r": 2.62, "profit_factor": 1.157, "max_drawdown_r": 4.99, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 15, "shuffled_price_runs": 40, "with_costs": { "run_id": "run_e544f28518", "trades": 40, "win_rate": 52.5, "expectancy_r": 0.0007, "total_r": 0.03, "profit_factor": 0.992, "max_drawdown_r": 5.84, "folds_profitable": 2, "folds": 5, "verdict": "reject", "verdict_word": "not this time", "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 18, "shuffled_price_runs": 40 } }, { "variant": "ifvg-1h-d-nq-rr1", "slug": 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