Ryan's iFVG model (4H entry, daily context) on EURUSD

Method

4H entry, daily context. Price sweeps an obvious level (the previous day's high or low, a context swing, the Asia or London range, or a recent swing on the entry chart). A single fair value gap formed in the leg into the sweep is then closed through by a candle body: the inversion. Entry at the next bar's open, away from the sweep; stop at the swept extreme; target the nearest untaken level on the other side, taken only if it is at least 1R away. On 5m and 15m, signals 09:30-11:00 New York and flat at 16:00. Every rule was written down before the test and nothing was optimised.

Data: EURUSD, 1 October 2021 to 26 October 2026. A signal fills at the next bar's open; a bar that reaches both stop and target counts as stopped.

The test is a rolling walk-forward with five folds; only trades in the test windows count. Results are in R, the amount risked per trade. The verdict is before trading costs; a second reading charges average spread, slippage and commission and is labelled as an estimate.

This is one of 180 tests. With that many, several can look good by chance alone.

The iFVG model is taught by the trader and educator Ryan (DodgysDD) on YouTube and X. The rules here are IDFX's mechanical reading of what Ryan teaches publicly, written down before the test. Ryan reads the draw on liquidity by eye, mostly on 1 to 3-minute charts, and has not seen or endorsed this test.

Verdict: not this time (engine grade: reject). Out of sample, this reading of the iFVG model averaged -0.016R per trade over 21 trades on EURUSD, -0.3R in total, before trading costs, and 2 of 5 test windows made money. Estimate with average costs: -0.050R per trade, -1.0R. This is one of 180 tests.

Runs run_53f22251ef (before costs) and run_ea1d7a3164 (with costs), IDFX engine, November 2026. The sample-trade review was deferred; the trades were checked candle by candle instead.

The idea

Price runs an obvious high or low where stops sit. On the way into it, it leaves a fair value gap. When a candle body closes back through that gap, the gap is inverted and the sweep looks like a trap: trade away from it, stop beyond the swept extreme, target the liquidity on the other side.

The iFVG model is taught by the trader and educator Ryan (DodgysDD) on YouTube and X. The rules here are IDFX's mechanical reading of what Ryan teaches publicly, written down before the test. Ryan reads the draw on liquidity by eye, mostly on 1 to 3-minute charts, and has not seen or endorsed this test.

Data and test

• EURUSD, H4 bars, 1 October 2021 to 26 October 2026.
• Rolling walk-forward, five folds; only the test windows count. Every rule was fixed.

Results (out of sample)

The verdict, before trading costs

Not this time. Rejected: 21 out-of-sample trades; under 100 the statistics are fragile; expectancy of -0.016R per trade before trading costs; 47% probability the true Sharpe is above zero (one fixed rule set was tested, so there is no search to deflate for). Also failed: fold consistency, robust to resampled trades.

• Sample size: failed. 21 out-of-sample trades; under 100 the statistics are fragile
• Positive expectancy: failed. expectancy of -0.016R per trade before trading costs
• Walk-forward efficiency: not applicable. not applicable: every parameter is fixed, so nothing was fitted on the training windows and there is no fit to decay; the fixed rules are judged by their out-of-sample expectancy and fold consistency
• Fold consistency: failed. 40% of walk-forward folds were profitable
• Sharpe significance: failed. 47% probability the true Sharpe is above zero (one fixed rule set was tested, so there is no search to deflate for)
• Beats shuffled price: failed. p = 0.610 against block-bootstrapped price series
• Robust to resampled trades: failed. 48% of trade sequences resampled with replacement end profitable
• Survivable drawdown: passed. 0.0% chance of halving the account at the configured risk
• Drawdown: passed. maximum drawdown of 9.4%

Reshuffled price series scored as well or better in 24 of 40 tries (p = 0.61).

180 tests. This is one of 180 run together, so no single one should be read on its own.

Limitations

• The verdict is before trading costs. The with-costs figure is an estimate from average costs, not one broker's fills.
• One of 180 tests; a single good-looking result among them can be luck.
• The out-of-sample result covers about 3.4 years, not the whole five.
• 5-minute and slower charts; Ryan mostly enters on 1 to 3-minute charts.
• A mechanical reading. Ryan reads the draw on liquidity by eye; Ryan's own trading can differ.
• A backtest, not live or funded-account trading.