Studies

Study series · 6 tests

IVB (Initial Volume Breakout) on NAS100 and US500: three readings, price only

3 readings of the rules, written down before any test, each run on 2 markets: 6 tests. 6 of 6 averaged above zero out of sample, 2 graded promising. Every test is shown below with equal weight.

Tests
6
Markets
NAS100, US500
Candles
5 minutes
Data
Oct 2021 – Oct 2026
Out of sample
May 2023 – Oct 2026
Published
26 Oct 2026
The rules

What was tested

A. The ProtocolThe mechanical version that circulates online.
09:30–10:00 rangecloses above the rangebuy the next openflat at 15:00stop · range lowtarget · 1Rillustration, not data5-minute bars, New York time
Direction
Long only
Entry
Next 5-minute open after the close above the range
Stop
The range low
Target
1R
B. Breakout, both waysTest A plus its mirror image, as IVB is taught.
09:30–10:00 rangecloses below the rangesell the next openflat at 15:00stop · range hightarget · 1Rillustration, not data5-minute bars, New York time
Direction
Long or short, whichever breaks first
Entry
Next 5-minute open after the close outside
Stop
The range’s other side
Target
1R
C. The retest“Don’t chase”: wait for price to come back to the range.
09:30–10:00 rangecloses above the rangelimit buy fills at the range highflat at 15:00stop · midpointtarget · 2Rillustration, not data5-minute bars, New York time
Direction
Long or short
Entry
Limit order at the range edge, valid 60 minutes
Stop
The range midpoint
Target
2R
  1. 1
    The range

    The high and low of the six 5-minute bars from 09:30 to 09:55 New York. Known at 10:00.

  2. 2
    A breakout is a close

    A 5-minute bar that opens at or after 10:00 and closes strictly outside the range. A wick through it is not one.

  3. 3
    One trade a day

    One position at a time, on every day the market has data. No day, news or range-size filter.

  4. 4
    Flat at 15:00

    A trade still open is closed at the close of the 14:55 bar.

  5. 5
    Both in one bar: the stop

    If one 5-minute bar touches the stop and the target, the stop counts.

  6. 6
    1% risk, results in R

    Size follows from the stop distance. Nothing was fitted: every rule was fixed before the test.

IVB (Initial Volume Breakout) is the opening-range model taught by Fabio Valentini (“Fabervaale”). The rules here are IDFX’s stated, mechanical reading of what he and others have published, written down before any test. They are not his own code, and the volume confirmation he teaches is not part of them.

Out-of-sample results

All 6, side by side

Before trading costs Out-of-sample

6 tests were run (3 readings of the rules x 2 markets). With six tries, one can look good by chance alone even if none has an edge. All are listed with equal weight; read any positive result as '1 of 6'.

NAS100
US500
A
A. The Protocol · NAS100Strong+0.085Rper trade+48.3Rtotal569trades 5 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 0 of 40This test A. The Protocol · US500Not this time+0.032Rper trade+18.8Rtotal594trades 3 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 5 of 40This test
B
B. Breakout · NAS100Strong+0.057Rper trade+49.7Rtotal871trades 4 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 0 of 40This test B. Breakout · US500Not this time+0.037Rper trade+33.1Rtotal884trades 4 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 1 of 40This test
C
C. Retest of the range edge · NAS100Not this time+0.041Rper trade+30.4Rtotal746trades 3 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 0 of 40This test C. Retest of the range edge · US500Not this time+0.014Rper trade+10.4Rtotal743trades 2 of 5 windows upshuffled price as good: 7 of 40This test

Each curve is the test windows stitched end to end, in R, on the same time axis. "Windows up": test windows with a positive average. "Shuffled price as good": how many of the engine's reshuffled price series did as well or better; the fewest for any of the 6 tests was 0.

Every test

All 6, with equal weight

Before trading costs Out-of-sample
TestTradesWin ratePer tradeTotalProfit factorWindows upShuffled as goodVerdict
A. The Protocol · NAS10056956.9%+0.085R+48.3R1.275 of 50 of 40Strong
A. The Protocol · US50059454.4%+0.032R+18.8R1.073 of 55 of 40Not this time
B. Breakout · NAS10087153.2%+0.057R+49.7R1.154 of 50 of 40Strong
B. Breakout · US50088451.4%+0.037R+33.1R1.094 of 51 of 40Not this time
C. Retest of the range edge · NAS10074639.5%+0.041R+30.4R1.053 of 50 of 40Not this time
C. Retest of the range edge · US50074336.2%+0.014R+10.4R1.012 of 57 of 40Not this time

Each reading of the rules is its own test, run on each market. Every row is out of sample and before trading costs.

Real trades

The rules on real candles

A. The Protocol

NAS100 · 2026-10-21 · long · target hit, +1.00R
09:0009:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:00breakout close 10:4515:005-minute bars, New York timetarget29,889.30range high29,739.93range low · stop29,594.80
NAS100 · 2026-10-08 · long · stop hit, −1.00R
09:0009:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:00breakout close 10:1515:005-minute bars, New York timetarget31,179.44range high31,050.81range low · stop30,932.94

B. Breakout, both ways

NAS100 · 2026-10-22 · short · target hit, +1.00R
09:0009:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:00breakout close 10:2015:005-minute bars, New York timerange high · stop29,395.09range low29,263.59target29,064.09
NAS100 · 2026-10-19 · short · stop hit, −1.00R
09:0009:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:00breakout close 10:0015:005-minute bars, New York timerange high · stop29,621.08range low29,501.08target29,372.32

C. The retest

NAS100 · 2026-10-26 · long · target hit, +2.00R
09:0009:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:00breakout close 10:1515:005-minute bars, New York timetarget29,340.01range high29,174.76stop · midpoint29,092.14range low29,009.51
NAS100 · 2026-10-19 · short · stop hit, −1.00R
09:0009:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:00breakout close 10:0015:005-minute bars, New York timerange high29,621.08stop · midpoint29,561.08range low29,501.08target29,381.08

Real out-of-sample trades from each reading’s NAS100 test (run_e2f9a82118, run_1493045115, run_cac48fbeb1), picked to show the rules and not the result: the most recent target and stop of each.

Price only

Why the volume part was not tested

IVB confirms a breakout with exchange volume: buying against selling volume, single big trades, a volume profile of the range. The broker’s CFD feed has only tick volume, and it is capped. So these tests use price only: the range, the breakout close, the entry, the stop and the target.

Busiest bar8.1×the median on Nasdaq futures, against 1.3× on the CFD feed
The 09:30 bar3.87×an average bar on Nasdaq futures, against 1.31× on the CFD feed
Volume over 2× normal0%of those moments showed up on the CFD feed
The feed’s cap~2,300price updates per 5-minute bar, however busy the market

Measured over 49 New York sessions (2026-08-17 to 2026-10-23): the broker’s NAS100 tick volume against CME Nasdaq futures, 5-minute bars, 09:30 to 16:00. The rhythm of the day matches (correlation 0.80), but the spikes IVB looks for are flattened away. Testing the volume layer needs real futures data.

Free on TradingView

The indicators

Free indicator

IVB Opening Range Protocol (long-only breakout) [IDFX]

Marks every setup these rules produce on a 5-minute chart and replays each trade the way the backtest handled it: the entry, the stop, the target and the exit. Checked against the backtest: 825 of 825 trades identical over the five years.

Open on TradingView The test behind it
Free indicator

IVB Opening Range breakout (both directions) [IDFX]

Marks every setup these rules produce on a 5-minute chart and replays each trade the way the backtest handled it: the entry, the stop, the target and the exit. Checked against the backtest: 1,274 of 1,274 trades identical over the five years.

Open on TradingView The test behind it

Limitations

  • Price only. IVB’s volume and order-flow confirmation was not tested: the CFD feed’s tick volume is capped, and has no buy/sell split or trade sizes.
  • Before trading costs. Spread, commission and slippage would push every average down, not up.
  • 6 tests. Any single good-looking row can be luck; read each one against all 6.
  • Out of sample is May 2023 – Oct 2026, not the whole data period.
  • Three readings of IVB. Other entries, stops or targets are different strategies and were not tested.
  • One broker’s CFD price feed, not the Nasdaq and S&P futures IVB is taught on.
  • 5-minute bars: a bar that touches both the stop and the target counts as a loss.
  • A backtest. Not live trading, and not a funded account.

The data

All 6 tests in one file, published as it was written, with the engine run behind each row. Each test also has its own page and file.

/studies/ivb.json