{
 "study": "ivb",
 "title": "IVB (Initial Volume Breakout) on NAS100 and US500: three readings, price only",
 "costs": "before trading costs",
 "period": {
  "start": "2021-10-01",
  "end": "2026-10-26"
 },
 "tests": 6,
 "multiple_testing": "6 tests were run (3 readings of the rules x 2 markets). With six tries, one can look good by chance alone even if none has an edge. All are listed with equal weight; read any positive result as '1 of 6'.",
 "volume": "Price only. IVB's volume confirmation (buy/sell delta, big trades, a volume profile of the range) needs exchange volume; the MT5 CFD feed has only capped tick volume (see rules.md), so the volume layer is not tested.",
 "review": "Sample-trade review deferred by the owner (26 October 2026): the runs were made unattended and the previews are left for the owner to review afterwards.",
 "variants": [
  {
   "variant": "ivb-protocol-nas100",
   "slug": "ivb-protocol-nas100",
   "rule": "protocol",
   "rule_title": "A. The Protocol: breakout, long only, 1R",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "run_id": "run_e2f9a82118",
   "trades": 569,
   "win_rate": 56.94,
   "expectancy_r": 0.0848,
   "total_r": 48.26,
   "profit_factor": 1.275,
   "max_drawdown_r": 8.41,
   "folds_profitable": 5,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "strong",
   "verdict_word": "promising",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 0,
   "shuffled_price_runs": 40
  },
  {
   "variant": "ivb-protocol-us500",
   "slug": "ivb-protocol-us500",
   "rule": "protocol",
   "rule_title": "A. The Protocol: breakout, long only, 1R",
   "market": "US500",
   "run_id": "run_06917ae0f2",
   "trades": 594,
   "win_rate": 54.38,
   "expectancy_r": 0.0317,
   "total_r": 18.83,
   "profit_factor": 1.075,
   "max_drawdown_r": 20.43,
   "folds_profitable": 3,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 5,
   "shuffled_price_runs": 40
  },
  {
   "variant": "ivb-breakout-nas100",
   "slug": "ivb-breakout-nas100",
   "rule": "breakout",
   "rule_title": "B. Breakout, both directions, 1R",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "run_id": "run_1493045115",
   "trades": 871,
   "win_rate": 53.16,
   "expectancy_r": 0.057,
   "total_r": 49.68,
   "profit_factor": 1.154,
   "max_drawdown_r": 14.8,
   "folds_profitable": 4,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "strong",
   "verdict_word": "promising",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 0,
   "shuffled_price_runs": 40
  },
  {
   "variant": "ivb-breakout-us500",
   "slug": "ivb-breakout-us500",
   "rule": "breakout",
   "rule_title": "B. Breakout, both directions, 1R",
   "market": "US500",
   "run_id": "run_6e1021c101",
   "trades": 884,
   "win_rate": 51.36,
   "expectancy_r": 0.0375,
   "total_r": 33.11,
   "profit_factor": 1.087,
   "max_drawdown_r": 21.56,
   "folds_profitable": 4,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 1,
   "shuffled_price_runs": 40
  },
  {
   "variant": "ivb-retest-nas100",
   "slug": "ivb-retest-nas100",
   "rule": "retest",
   "rule_title": "C. Retest of the range edge, stop at the midpoint, 2R",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "run_id": "run_cac48fbeb1",
   "trades": 746,
   "win_rate": 39.54,
   "expectancy_r": 0.0407,
   "total_r": 30.37,
   "profit_factor": 1.05,
   "max_drawdown_r": 36.98,
   "folds_profitable": 3,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 0,
   "shuffled_price_runs": 40
  },
  {
   "variant": "ivb-retest-us500",
   "slug": "ivb-retest-us500",
   "rule": "retest",
   "rule_title": "C. Retest of the range edge, stop at the midpoint, 2R",
   "market": "US500",
   "run_id": "run_f7dbc84d86",
   "trades": 743,
   "win_rate": 36.2,
   "expectancy_r": 0.014,
   "total_r": 10.39,
   "profit_factor": 1.009,
   "max_drawdown_r": 29.83,
   "folds_profitable": 2,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 7,
   "shuffled_price_runs": 40
  }
 ]
}