Studies

Study series · 10 testsNot this time · all 10

Tori Trades' trend line strategy on five markets, 4H

One rule, written down before any test, run on 5 markets, each with three-touch lines (the main rule) and with any two-touch line: 10 tests. 5 of 10 averaged above zero out of sample, none graded promising. Every test is shown below with equal weight.

Tests
10
Markets
Platinum, WTI oil, Gold, US30, NAS100
Candles
4H
Data
Oct 2021 – Oct 2026
Out of sample
Jul 2023 – Oct 2026
Published
27 Oct 2026

Whose strategy this is

The trend line strategy is taught by the trader and YouTuber Tori Trades, in her own public videos and blog. This page tests IDFX’s mechanical reading of what she teaches: her rules, made exact so a computer can run them. She has not seen or endorsed this test. She trades by eye, rates her lines and can skip a setup, so this tests the rules, not her.

Engine verdict, all 10 testsBefore trading costs Out-of-sample
Not this time

All 10 rejected. 5 of 10 averaged above zero out of sample, about what chance gives when nothing works, and none did better than the same rules on reshuffled price. Before trading costs. Every test below has equal weight.

The rule

Action line in, safety line out

Her method, as she teaches it: price breaks a trend line, take the trade in the direction of the break (the action line); keep the stop on the other side of the opposing line (the safety line) and trail it along that line; no take-profit. Her A+ setup is a line with three touch points. These are the rules as written down and committed on 27 October 2026, before any test was run.

  1. 1
    Draw the falling line

    Start at the highest swing high of the last 13 weeks. Touch as many swing highs as possible, never cut through one, and start each steeper line where the last one ended. The newest, steepest line is the one traded.

  2. 2
    Draw the rising line

    The same on the swing lows, from the lowest low.

  3. 3
    Enter on a close through the action line

    A 4-hour candle closes above the falling line (long) or below the rising line (short). The line needs at least three touch points (two in the variant), price must not already have closed through it, and the other line must exist with price on its safe side. Fill at the next bar’s open.

  4. 4
    Stop beyond the safety line

    The opposing line is the safety line. The stop sits a quarter of an ATR beyond it and moves along it at every close, never loosened.

  5. 5
    No target

    No take-profit and no time limit: the trade stays on until the stop is hit. One trade at a time, 1% risk.

Her drawing rules are a rubber band
A: highest swing high, last 13 weekstouch as many swings as possiblenever cut through oneB becomes the new Anewest, steepest line: tradedillustration
Action line in, safety line out, no target
action line (falling)safety line (rising)4H close through itlong at the next openstop: ¼ ATR below the safety line,moved at every closeillustration · no target

Her three drawing rules (connect the lines, touch as many swings as possible, never cut through price) plus “the previous point B is the new point A” describe exactly one outline: the one a rubber band makes when stretched over the swing highs, known as the convex hull. That is how the engine draws her lines, so there is no judgement left in where a line goes. Both diagrams are illustrations, not data.

Out-of-sample results

The main rule: 3 touch points

Before trading costs Out-of-sample

10 tests were run (5 markets x three-touch and two-touch lines). With that many, one can look good by chance alone even if none has an edge. All are listed with equal weight; read any positive result as '1 of 10'.

Each curve is the test windows stitched end to end, in R, on the same time axis. "Windows up": test windows with a positive average. "Shuffled price as good": how many of the engine's reshuffled price series did as well or better; the fewest for any of the 10 tests was 2.

Every test

All 10, with equal weight

Before trading costs Out-of-sample
TestTouch pointsTradesWin ratePer tradeTotalProfit factorWindows upShuffled as goodVerdict
Platinum · 3+ touches3+ (main)8239.0%−0.012R−1.0R0.922 of 539 of 40Not this time
WTI oil · 3+ touches3+ (main)7936.7%−0.021R−1.6R0.922 of 517 of 40Not this time
Gold · 3+ touches3+ (main)6036.7%+0.108R1 of 10+6.5R1.243 of 533 of 40Not this time
US30 · 3+ touches3+ (main)6428.1%−0.099R−6.3R0.763 of 535 of 40Not this time
NAS100 · 3+ touches3+ (main)5642.9%+0.198R1 of 10+11.1R1.545 of 52 of 40Not this time
Platinum · 2+ touches2+31031.6%−0.139R−43.0R0.700 of 540 of 40Not this time
WTI oil · 2+ touches2+30736.2%+0.126R1 of 10+38.5R1.304 of 55 of 40Not this time
Gold · 2+ touches2+26733.0%+0.260R1 of 10+69.4R1.655 of 55 of 40Not this time
US30 · 2+ touches2+31530.5%−0.078R−24.7R0.822 of 517 of 40Not this time
NAS100 · 2+ touches2+27635.1%+0.091R1 of 10+25.0R1.173 of 511 of 40Not this time

The 3+ rows are her A+ setup, the main rule; the 2+ rows are the same rule taking any line with two or more touch points. No target in any of them. Read any positive row as 1 of 10. Every row is out of sample and before trading costs.

Closest to passing

The two results that came closest

Before trading costs Out-of-sample

NAS100, her A+ setup (3+ touches)

1 of 10
Per trade+0.198R
Total+11.1R
Trades56
Windows up5 of 5
Longs
−0.007R × 29
Shorts
+0.418R × 27
Shuffled price as good
2 of 40 p = 0.073; a pass needs 1 or fewer

The closest call: every test window positive, and reshuffled price did as well only 2 times in 40. It needed 1 or fewer, and it is 56 trades and one of ten tests. The longs were flat; the shorts made it.

Gold, any line (2+ touches)

1 of 10
Per trade+0.260R
Total+69.4R
Trades267
Windows up5 of 5
Longs
+0.542R × 137
Shorts
−0.037R × 130
Shuffled price as good
5 of 40 p = 0.146; a pass needs 1 or fewer

The biggest total. The longs made it while gold roughly doubled over the test windows, and the shorts lost slightly. A trend rule that earns on the long side of a market that went up is exactly what the shuffled-price check looks for: 5 of 40 reshuffled runs did as well.

Shown because they came closest, not because they passed: both were rejected, and with ten tests one or two are expected to look good by chance. Long and short splits from each run’s results file. Gold’s rise: about $1,960 to $4,016 on this price feed across the test windows.

Real trades

Her lines on real candles

Platinum · 5 May · long · stop trailed into profit, +0.57R
16 Apr21 Apr24 Apr29 Apr4 May7 May4H close through the line4-hour bars · 3 touch pointsstop, trailed2,022.1action line1,984.0safety line1,970.1
WTI oil · 1 Oct · long · stopped, −0.96R
24 Aug31 Aug7 Sept14 Sept21 Sept28 Sept4 Oct4H close through the line4-hour bars · 3 touch pointsaction line92.94safety line92.41stop, trailed92.04
Platinum · 27 Sept · short · stop trailed into profit, +0.30R
28 Jul7 Aug19 Aug31 Aug10 Sept22 Sept4H close through the line4-hour bars · 3 touch pointssafety line1,769.6action line1,736.1stop, trailed1,713.4
NAS100 · 1 Oct · short · stopped, −1.00R
15 Sept17 Sept21 Sept24 Sept28 Sept30 Sept4H close through the line4-hour bars · 3 touch pointsstop, trailed30,608.2safety line30,550.0action line30,496.3

Real out-of-sample trades from the main-rule tests, with the lines as the engine drew them on the signal bar: touch points circled, the stop trailing along the safety line. Which trades: the most recent main-rule trade of each kind (long / short, a full 1R loss / a stop trailed into profit) with a first stop of 1 to 3 ATR; to show the rules, not the result.

Accuracy

Every trade checked against the rules

Nobody approved sample trades before the runs (the owner chose to review afterwards), so every trade was checked without the engine instead. A separate script redrew the lines from the raw 4-hour bars by another method and walked each out-of-sample trade bar by bar against the pre-registered rules.

1,816 of 1,816trades follow every rule
0signals missed while flat

The free TradingView indicator replays every trade of all ten tests identically. The strategy export matches too, except on 3 trades whose entry opened beyond the safety line after a weekend gap. The three-touch lines look like hers; the two-touch lines are often short and steep, which is why three touch points is the main rule.

Limitations

  • Before trading costs. Spread, commission and slippage would make every result worse.
  • 10 tests. Any single good-looking row can be luck; read each one as “1 of 10”.
  • Out of sample is Jul 2023 – Oct 2026, about 3.3 years; the first 21 months were the first training window.
  • A mechanical reading of a discretionary method. She rates lines, can skip a break, and offers filters (retest, confluence, higher-timeframe lines) that are not used here. “Not this time” means this reading found no edge, not that her trading does not work.
  • Her A+ setup is rare: 56 to 82 out-of-sample trades per market, too few for the engine’s sample-size check.
  • CFDs on one broker’s price feed; she trades futures.
  • 4-hour bars: a bar that reaches the stop counts as stopped.
  • A backtest. Not live trading, and not a funded account.

The data

All 10 tests in one file, published as it was written, with the engine run behind each row. Each main-rule test also has its own page and file.

/studies/tori-trades.json