{
 "slug": "tori-4h-platinum",
 "title": "Tori Trades' trend line strategy (4H) on platinum",
 "status": "complete",
 "published": "2026-10-27",
 "summary": "Tori Trades' trend line break, written as fixed rules (her three-touch A+ setup) and tested on XPTUSD 4-hour data from October 2021. Out of sample (Jul 2023 to Oct 2026) it took 82 trades and averaged -0.012R per trade, -1.0R in total, before trading costs. 2 of 5 test windows made money. Verdict: reject. Not this time. One of 10 tests.",
 "instrument": "XPTUSD",
 "timeframe": "H4",
 "period": {
  "start": "2021-10-01",
  "end": "2026-10-26"
 },
 "costs": "before trading costs",
 "run_id": "run_4c80618d1c",
 "verdict": {
  "grade": "reject",
  "summary": "Rejected: expectancy of -0.012R per trade before trading costs; 41% probability the true Sharpe is above zero (one fixed rule set was tested, so there is no search to deflate for); p = 0.976 against block-bootstrapped price series. Also failed: sample size, fold consistency, robust to resampled trades"
 },
 "oos_metrics": {
  "trades": 82,
  "win_rate": 39.02,
  "expectancy_r": -0.0119,
  "profit_factor": 0.924,
  "max_drawdown_r": 11.99,
  "total_r": -0.97
 },
 "equity_curve": [
  [
   "2023-07-14T05:00:00+00:00",
   0.0
  ],
  [
   "2023-07-30T21:00:00+00:00",
   1.272
  ],
  [
   "2023-08-31T05:00:00+00:00",
   5.528
  ],
  [
   "2023-09-28T09:00:00+00:00",
   5.23
  ],
  [
   "2023-10-04T09:00:00+00:00",
   5.489
  ],
  [
   "2023-10-27T09:00:00+00:00",
   5.293
  ],
  [
   "2023-11-01T17:00:00+00:00",
   4.985
  ],
  [
   "2023-11-03T13:00:00+00:00",
   4.502
  ],
  [
   "2023-11-22T10:00:00+00:00",
   5.448
  ],
  [
   "2023-11-24T06:00:00+00:00",
   5.67
  ],
  [
   "2023-11-29T10:00:00+00:00",
   4.922
  ],
  [
   "2023-12-03T22:00:00+00:00",
   4.558
  ],
  [
   "2023-12-15T10:00:00+00:00",
   5.457
  ],
  [
   "2024-01-04T10:00:00+00:00",
   5.704
  ],
  [
   "2024-01-12T18:00:00+00:00",
   4.704
  ],
  [
   "2024-01-23T06:00:00+00:00",
   3.704
  ],
  [
   "2024-01-24T22:00:00+00:00",
   2.625
  ],
  [
   "2024-01-31T10:00:00+00:00",
   3.254
  ],
  [
   "2024-02-20T02:00:00+00:00",
   3.137
  ],
  [
   "2024-03-01T18:00:00+00:00",
   2.205
  ],
  [
   "2024-03-11T01:00:00+00:00",
   4.844
  ],
  [
   "2024-03-15T09:00:00+00:00",
   3.868
  ],
  [
   "2024-03-25T09:00:00+00:00",
   4.919
  ],
  [
   "2024-05-07T09:00:00+00:00",
   4.038
  ],
  [
   "2024-05-17T09:00:00+00:00",
   8.436
  ],
  [
   "2024-06-12T01:00:00+00:00",
   8.827
  ],
  [
   "2024-06-20T09:00:00+00:00",
   10.1
  ],
  [
   "2024-06-25T09:00:00+00:00",
   10.024
  ],
  [
   "2024-07-04T13:00:00+00:00",
   9.269
  ],
  [
   "2024-07-11T09:00:00+00:00",
   8.269
  ],
  [
   "2024-07-17T05:00:00+00:00",
   7.347
  ],
  [
   "2024-07-23T05:00:00+00:00",
   7.826
  ],
  [
   "2024-07-26T17:00:00+00:00",
   7.911
  ],
  [
   "2024-09-03T09:00:00+00:00",
   7.547
  ],
  [
   "2024-09-25T09:00:00+00:00",
   6.767
  ],
  [
   "2024-10-17T21:00:00+00:00",
   6.092
  ],
  [
   "2024-10-22T05:00:00+00:00",
   5.092
  ],
  [
   "2024-11-05T06:00:00+00:00",
   4.092
  ],
  [
   "2024-11-15T14:00:00+00:00",
   4.636
  ],
  [
   "2024-11-25T02:00:00+00:00",
   3.776
  ],
  [
   "2024-11-28T06:00:00+00:00",
   4.707
  ],
  [
   "2024-12-04T10:00:00+00:00",
   3.93
  ],
  [
   "2024-12-11T06:00:00+00:00",
   3.213
  ],
  [
   "2024-12-16T10:00:00+00:00",
   2.805
  ],
  [
   "2024-12-18T10:00:00+00:00",
   1.945
  ],
  [
   "2025-01-23T02:00:00+00:00",
   1.974
  ],
  [
   "2025-02-07T14:00:00+00:00",
   5.84
  ],
  [
   "2025-02-19T06:00:00+00:00",
   5.308
  ],
  [
   "2025-02-27T10:00:00+00:00",
   4.388
  ],
  [
   "2025-03-06T06:00:00+00:00",
   4.426
  ],
  [
   "2025-03-07T14:00:00+00:00",
   3.658
  ],
  [
   "2025-03-17T01:00:00+00:00",
   4.765
  ],
  [
   "2025-03-27T13:00:00+00:00",
   3.84
  ],
  [
   "2025-04-08T01:00:00+00:00",
   7.048
  ],
  [
   "2025-04-22T01:00:00+00:00",
   6.152
  ],
  [
   "2025-04-30T05:00:00+00:00",
   5.74
  ],
  [
   "2025-05-06T01:00:00+00:00",
   5.692
  ],
  [
   "2025-05-12T05:00:00+00:00",
   4.877
  ],
  [
   "2025-07-16T09:00:00+00:00",
   3.993
  ],
  [
   "2025-08-06T13:00:00+00:00",
   4.413
  ],
  [
   "2025-08-15T09:00:00+00:00",
   4.648
  ],
  [
   "2025-08-19T01:00:00+00:00",
   4.724
  ],
  [
   "2025-08-25T13:00:00+00:00",
   4.412
  ],
  [
   "2025-08-28T05:00:00+00:00",
   4.033
  ],
  [
   "2025-08-29T13:00:00+00:00",
   3.084
  ],
  [
   "2025-09-10T05:00:00+00:00",
   2.177
  ],
  [
   "2025-09-25T01:00:00+00:00",
   3.198
  ],
  [
   "2025-10-07T21:00:00+00:00",
   3.308
  ],
  [
   "2025-10-31T09:00:00+00:00",
   3.077
  ],
  [
   "2025-11-12T14:00:00+00:00",
   2.17
  ],
  [
   "2025-12-05T06:00:00+00:00",
   1.537
  ],
  [
   "2026-01-19T14:00:00+00:00",
   1.093
  ],
  [
   "2026-02-06T14:00:00+00:00",
   0.35
  ],
  [
   "2026-03-17T21:00:00+00:00",
   0.007
  ],
  [
   "2026-04-02T01:00:00+00:00",
   -0.852
  ],
  [
   "2026-04-22T01:00:00+00:00",
   -1.518
  ],
  [
   "2026-05-04T05:00:00+00:00",
   -1.489
  ],
  [
   "2026-05-10T21:00:00+00:00",
   -0.918
  ],
  [
   "2026-08-19T13:00:00+00:00",
   -1.889
  ],
  [
   "2026-08-24T01:00:00+00:00",
   -1.283
  ],
  [
   "2026-09-08T01:00:00+00:00",
   -1.226
  ],
  [
   "2026-10-01T01:00:00+00:00",
   -0.926
  ],
  [
   "2026-10-09T01:00:00+00:00",
   -0.975
  ]
 ],
 "method": "4-hour bars. Trend lines are drawn the way she teaches, made exact: from the highest swing high of the last 13 weeks, lines touching as many swing highs as possible with none poking through, each starting where the last ended (the upper convex hull of the 3/3 swing highs); rising lines mirror it on the swing lows. The newest, steepest line of each is the one traded. A 4-hour close through the falling line is a long, through the rising line a short (her action line), if the line has at least 3 touch points within a quarter ATR, was not closed through before, and the opposing line (her safety line) exists with price on the safe side. Enter at the next open. The stop sits a quarter ATR beyond the safety line and trails it at every 4-hour close, never loosening. No target and no time limit. One trade at a time, 1% risk per trade. Every rule was written down before the test and nothing was optimised.\n\nData: the broker's MetaTrader 5 4-hour bars, 1 October 2021 to 26 October 2026. A signal fills at the next bar's open; a bar that reaches the stop is stopped out.\n\nThe test is a rolling walk-forward with five folds; only trades in the test windows count. Nothing was fitted in the training windows because nothing was tunable. Results are in R, the amount risked per trade, before trading costs.\n\nThis is one of 10 tests (5 markets, three-touch and two-touch lines). With that many, one can look good by chance alone.\n\nThe strategy is taught by the trader and YouTuber Tori Trades (Tori) in her videos and on her site: enter when price breaks a trend line (her \"action line\"), exit when it breaks the opposing line (her \"safety line\"). The rules here are IDFX's mechanical reading of what she teaches publicly, written down before the test. She trades by eye, with discretion, and has not reviewed or endorsed this test.",
 "limitations": [
  "Before trading costs. Spread, commission and slippage would make the result worse, not better.",
  "One of 10 tests; a single good-looking result among them can be luck.",
  "The out-of-sample result covers about 3.3 years, not the whole five.",
  "A mechanical reading. She draws by eye and filters setups with judgement; her own trading can differ.",
  "CFDs on one broker's feed; she trades futures.",
  "4-hour bars: a bar that reaches the stop counts as stopped, whatever happened inside it.",
  "A backtest, not live or funded-account trading."
 ],
 "study_group": {
  "slug": "tori-trades",
  "tests": 10,
  "comparison": "studies/tori-trades/comparison.json"
 }
}