{
 "slug": "ivb-retest-us500",
 "title": "IVB retest on US500",
 "status": "complete",
 "published": "2026-10-26",
 "summary": "IVB, the 09:30-10:00 New York opening range breakout taught by Fabio Valentini, tested as Fabio's 'don't chase': after a breakout close, a limit order back at the range edge, stop at the range midpoint, target 2R, on US500 5-minute data from October 2021. Price only: the volume confirmation could not be tested on CFD data. In the out-of-sample windows (May 2023 to Oct 2026) it took 743 trades and averaged +0.014R per trade, +10.4R in total, before trading costs. 2 of 5 test windows made money. Verdict: reject. Not this time. One of 6 IVB tests.",
 "instrument": "US500",
 "timeframe": "M5",
 "period": {
  "start": "2021-10-01",
  "end": "2026-10-26"
 },
 "costs": "before trading costs",
 "run_id": "run_f7dbc84d86",
 "verdict": {
  "grade": "reject",
  "summary": "Rejected: 61% probability the true Sharpe is above zero (one fixed rule set was tested, so there is no search to deflate for); p = 0.195 against block-bootstrapped price series. Also failed: fold consistency, robust to resampled trades"
 },
 "oos_metrics": {
  "trades": 743,
  "win_rate": 36.2,
  "expectancy_r": 0.014,
  "profit_factor": 1.009,
  "max_drawdown_r": 29.83,
  "total_r": 10.39
 },
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 ],
 "method": "Opening range: the high and low of the six 5-minute bars from 09:30 to 09:55 New York. Breakout: a fresh 5-minute close above the range high (or below the low) on a bar opening between 10:00 and 13:50 New York. Entry: a limit order at the broken edge (the range high for a long, the low for a short), valid for 60 minutes. It fills if price comes back to it. Stop: the range midpoint. Target: 2R from the fill (a full range beyond the edge when filled at the edge). Flat at 15:00 New York. One trade a day, 1% risk per trade. Every rule was written down before the test and nothing was optimised.\n\nData: the broker's MetaTrader 5 5-minute bars, 1 October 2021 to 26 October 2026. A signal fills at the next bar's open; if one bar touches both the stop and the target, the stop counts.\n\nThe test is a rolling walk-forward with five folds; only trades in the test windows (May 2023 to Oct 2026) count. Nothing was fitted, because nothing was tunable. Results are in R, the amount risked per trade, before trading costs.\n\nThe volume part of IVB is not tested. IVB confirms a breakout with exchange volume: buying versus selling volume, single large trades, a volume profile of the range. The broker's MT5 CFD feed has only tick volume, and it is capped: in the weeks measured (August to October 2026) it topped out at about 2,300 price updates per 5-minute bar, so the busiest bar looked 1.3 times an ordinary one where real Nasdaq futures volume showed 8 times, and when real volume ran over twice its normal level the feed never showed it. The cap's level also shifts from year to year. So this tests IVB's price rules (range, breakout close, entry, stop, target), not its volume filter.\n\nThis is one of 6 IVB tests (3 readings of the rules, 2 markets). With six, one can look good by chance alone. The sample trades are left for the owner to review after the runs; nobody approved them beforehand (the owner's choice).",
 "limitations": [
  "Price only: IVB's volume and order-flow confirmation was not tested, because CFD tick volume is capped and has no buy/sell split or trade sizes.",
  "Before trading costs. Spread, commission and slippage would make the result worse, not better.",
  "One of 6 tests run on IVB; a single good-looking result among them can be luck.",
  "The out-of-sample result covers May 2023 to Oct 2026, not the whole five years.",
  "One precise reading of IVB. Other entries, stops or targets could behave differently.",
  "One broker's CFD price feed, not the Nasdaq or S&P futures IVB is taught on.",
  "5-minute bars: what happens inside a bar is not visible, so a bar that touches both stop and target counts as a loss.",
  "A backtest, not live or funded-account trading."
 ],
 "study_group": {
  "slug": "ivb",
  "tests": 6,
  "comparison": "studies/ivb/comparison.json"
 }
}