{
 "slug": "ifvg-4h-d-nq",
 "title": "Ryan's iFVG model (4H entry, daily context) on NQ",
 "status": "complete",
 "published": "2026-11-04",
 "summary": "Ryan's (DodgysDD) iFVG model, written as fixed rules and tested on NQ from October 2021. Out of sample it took 20 trades and averaged -0.233R per trade, -4.7R in total, before trading costs; with average costs, an estimated -0.238R. 2 of 5 test windows made money before costs. Verdict: not this time. One of 180 tests.",
 "instrument": "NQ",
 "timeframe": "H4",
 "period": {
  "start": "2021-10-01",
  "end": "2026-10-26"
 },
 "costs": "before trading costs",
 "run_id": "run_6c50896099",
 "verdict": {
  "grade": "reject",
  "summary": "Rejected: 20 out-of-sample trades; under 100 the statistics are fragile; expectancy of -0.233R per trade before trading costs; 18% probability the true Sharpe is above zero (one fixed rule set was tested, so there is no search to deflate for). Also failed: fold consistency, robust to resampled trades"
 },
 "oos_metrics": {
  "trades": 20,
  "win_rate": 30.0,
  "expectancy_r": -0.233,
  "profit_factor": 0.644,
  "max_drawdown_r": 9.01,
  "total_r": -4.66
 },
 "with_costs_estimate": {
  "label": "estimate with average costs",
  "run_id": "run_b55097aa2e",
  "grade": "reject",
  "word": "not this time",
  "trades": 20,
  "expectancy_r": -0.2383,
  "total_r": -4.77,
  "win_rate": 30.0,
  "profit_factor": 0.638
 },
 "equity_curve": [
  [
   "2023-06-14T02:00:00+00:00",
   0.0
  ],
  [
   "2023-09-26T10:00:00+00:00",
   -1.0
  ],
  [
   "2023-09-27T14:00:00+00:00",
   -2.0
  ],
  [
   "2023-12-29T14:00:00+00:00",
   0.228
  ],
  [
   "2024-03-01T14:00:00+00:00",
   -0.772
  ],
  [
   "2024-05-22T18:00:00+00:00",
   -1.772
  ],
  [
   "2024-06-05T02:00:00+00:00",
   -2.772
  ],
  [
   "2024-06-07T14:00:00+00:00",
   -3.772
  ],
  [
   "2024-08-06T14:00:00+00:00",
   -4.772
  ],
  [
   "2024-09-24T06:00:00+00:00",
   -5.772
  ],
  [
   "2024-10-16T22:00:00+00:00",
   -5.646
  ],
  [
   "2024-12-11T14:00:00+00:00",
   -4.007
  ],
  [
   "2025-01-10T14:00:00+00:00",
   -5.007
  ],
  [
   "2025-06-22T22:00:00+00:00",
   -6.016
  ],
  [
   "2025-10-03T14:00:00+00:00",
   -4.782
  ],
  [
   "2025-10-17T06:00:00+00:00",
   -5.782
  ],
  [
   "2026-01-26T14:00:00+00:00",
   -6.782
  ],
  [
   "2026-03-12T10:00:00+00:00",
   -7.782
  ],
  [
   "2026-04-24T10:00:00+00:00",
   -8.782
  ],
  [
   "2026-06-23T06:00:00+00:00",
   -6.826
  ],
  [
   "2026-07-16T10:00:00+00:00",
   -4.66
  ]
 ],
 "method": "4H entry, daily context. Price sweeps an obvious level (the previous day's high or low, a context swing, the Asia or London range, or a recent swing on the entry chart). A single fair value gap formed in the leg into the sweep is then closed through by a candle body: the inversion. Entry at the next bar's open, away from the sweep; stop at the swept extreme; target the nearest untaken level on the other side, taken only if it is at least 1R away. On 5m and 15m, signals 09:30-11:00 New York and flat at 16:00. Every rule was written down before the test and nothing was optimised.\n\nData: NQ (CME E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures, back-adjusted), 1 October 2021 to 26 October 2026. A signal fills at the next bar's open; a bar that reaches both stop and target counts as stopped.\n\nThe test is a rolling walk-forward with five folds; only trades in the test windows count. Results are in R, the amount risked per trade. The verdict is before trading costs; a second reading charges average spread, slippage and commission and is labelled as an estimate.\n\nThis is one of 180 tests. With that many, several can look good by chance alone.\n\nThe iFVG model is taught by the trader and educator Ryan (DodgysDD) on YouTube and X. The rules here are IDFX's mechanical reading of what Ryan teaches publicly, written down before the test. Ryan reads the draw on liquidity by eye, mostly on 1 to 3-minute charts, and has not seen or endorsed this test.",
 "limitations": [
  "The verdict is before trading costs. The with-costs figure is an estimate from average costs, not one broker's fills.",
  "One of 180 tests; a single good-looking result among them can be luck.",
  "The out-of-sample result covers about 3.4 years, not the whole five.",
  "5-minute and slower charts; Ryan mostly enters on 1 to 3-minute charts.",
  "A mechanical reading. Ryan reads the draw on liquidity by eye; Ryan's own trading can differ.",
  "A backtest, not live or funded-account trading."
 ],
 "study_group": {
  "slug": "ifvg",
  "tests": 180,
  "comparison": "studies/ifvg/comparison.json"
 }
}