{
 "study": "crt",
 "title": "CRT (Candle Range Theory) across four timeframes, NAS100 and gold",
 "costs": "before trading costs",
 "period": {
  "start": "2021-10-01",
  "end": "2026-10-26"
 },
 "tests": 24,
 "multiple_testing": "24 tests were run (4 timeframes x 2 markets x 3 reward-to-risk floors). With that many, one or two can look good by chance alone even if none has an edge. All are listed with equal weight; read any positive result as '1 of 24'.",
 "main_rule_min_rr": 1,
 "variants": [
  {
   "variant": "crt-d-nas100",
   "slug": "crt-d-nas100",
   "timeframe": "Daily",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "min_rr": 1,
   "run_id": "run_65977590d0",
   "trades": 172,
   "win_rate": 33.72,
   "expectancy_r": -0.2097,
   "total_r": -36.06,
   "profit_factor": 0.636,
   "max_drawdown_r": 36.57,
   "folds_profitable": 0,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 35
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-d-gold",
   "slug": "crt-d-gold",
   "timeframe": "Daily",
   "market": "XAUUSD",
   "min_rr": 1,
   "run_id": "run_ce32a19701",
   "trades": 171,
   "win_rate": 35.09,
   "expectancy_r": -0.1341,
   "total_r": -22.93,
   "profit_factor": 0.747,
   "max_drawdown_r": 23.58,
   "folds_profitable": 2,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 27
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-4h-nas100",
   "slug": "crt-4h-nas100",
   "timeframe": "4H",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "min_rr": 1,
   "run_id": "run_7b0882a7cc",
   "trades": 216,
   "win_rate": 42.13,
   "expectancy_r": 0.1848,
   "total_r": 39.92,
   "profit_factor": 1.314,
   "max_drawdown_r": 14.24,
   "folds_profitable": 4,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 4
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-4h-gold",
   "slug": "crt-4h-gold",
   "timeframe": "4H",
   "market": "XAUUSD",
   "min_rr": 1,
   "run_id": "run_b6d38b00a3",
   "trades": 291,
   "win_rate": 41.58,
   "expectancy_r": 0.0646,
   "total_r": 18.79,
   "profit_factor": 1.102,
   "max_drawdown_r": 19.92,
   "folds_profitable": 4,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 27
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-1h-nas100",
   "slug": "crt-1h-nas100",
   "timeframe": "1H",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "min_rr": 1,
   "run_id": "run_5dc90ffaac",
   "trades": 1419,
   "win_rate": 39.46,
   "expectancy_r": -0.0219,
   "total_r": -31.04,
   "profit_factor": 0.956,
   "max_drawdown_r": 71.29,
   "folds_profitable": 2,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 29
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-1h-gold",
   "slug": "crt-1h-gold",
   "timeframe": "1H",
   "market": "XAUUSD",
   "min_rr": 1,
   "run_id": "run_af5b1c86da",
   "trades": 1466,
   "win_rate": 40.45,
   "expectancy_r": 0.0354,
   "total_r": 51.84,
   "profit_factor": 1.055,
   "max_drawdown_r": 37.09,
   "folds_profitable": 4,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 10
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-15m-nas100",
   "slug": "crt-15m-nas100",
   "timeframe": "15m",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "min_rr": 1,
   "run_id": "run_8b7fb7b8d4",
   "trades": 1788,
   "win_rate": 37.81,
   "expectancy_r": -0.0123,
   "total_r": -21.91,
   "profit_factor": 0.966,
   "max_drawdown_r": 56.42,
   "folds_profitable": 2,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 28
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-15m-gold",
   "slug": "crt-15m-gold",
   "timeframe": "15m",
   "market": "XAUUSD",
   "min_rr": 1,
   "run_id": "run_05d31fc47c",
   "trades": 1785,
   "win_rate": 38.21,
   "expectancy_r": 0.0074,
   "total_r": 13.29,
   "profit_factor": 0.994,
   "max_drawdown_r": 58.23,
   "folds_profitable": 4,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 4
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-d-nas100-rr2",
   "slug": "crt-d-nas100",
   "timeframe": "Daily",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "min_rr": 2,
   "run_id": "run_e59c6bc2d2",
   "trades": 85,
   "win_rate": 24.71,
   "expectancy_r": -0.347,
   "total_r": -29.5,
   "profit_factor": 0.504,
   "max_drawdown_r": 29.5,
   "folds_profitable": 0,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 32
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-d-gold-rr2",
   "slug": "crt-d-gold",
   "timeframe": "Daily",
   "market": "XAUUSD",
   "min_rr": 2,
   "run_id": "run_b7b95fd96e",
   "trades": 87,
   "win_rate": 32.18,
   "expectancy_r": -0.0394,
   "total_r": -3.43,
   "profit_factor": 0.919,
   "max_drawdown_r": 12.92,
   "folds_profitable": 2,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 15
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-4h-nas100-rr2",
   "slug": "crt-4h-nas100",
   "timeframe": "4H",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "min_rr": 2,
   "run_id": "run_c464f51850",
   "trades": 108,
   "win_rate": 30.56,
   "expectancy_r": 0.1028,
   "total_r": 11.1,
   "profit_factor": 1.129,
   "max_drawdown_r": 13.26,
   "folds_profitable": 3,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 9
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-4h-gold-rr2",
   "slug": "crt-4h-gold",
   "timeframe": "4H",
   "market": "XAUUSD",
   "min_rr": 2,
   "run_id": "run_2988b57dbe",
   "trades": 144,
   "win_rate": 38.89,
   "expectancy_r": 0.1714,
   "total_r": 24.68,
   "profit_factor": 1.266,
   "max_drawdown_r": 8.94,
   "folds_profitable": 4,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 15
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-1h-nas100-rr2",
   "slug": "crt-1h-nas100",
   "timeframe": "1H",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "min_rr": 2,
   "run_id": "run_465ad64e3e",
   "trades": 876,
   "win_rate": 33.9,
   "expectancy_r": -0.0368,
   "total_r": -32.21,
   "profit_factor": 0.938,
   "max_drawdown_r": 76.61,
   "folds_profitable": 2,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 38
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-1h-gold-rr2",
   "slug": "crt-1h-gold",
   "timeframe": "1H",
   "market": "XAUUSD",
   "min_rr": 2,
   "run_id": "run_7c1eda1190",
   "trades": 975,
   "win_rate": 34.67,
   "expectancy_r": 0.0191,
   "total_r": 18.59,
   "profit_factor": 1.012,
   "max_drawdown_r": 31.21,
   "folds_profitable": 2,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 18
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-15m-nas100-rr2",
   "slug": "crt-15m-nas100",
   "timeframe": "15m",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "min_rr": 2,
   "run_id": "run_1204864908",
   "trades": 1754,
   "win_rate": 33.24,
   "expectancy_r": 0.0117,
   "total_r": 20.57,
   "profit_factor": 1.008,
   "max_drawdown_r": 44.17,
   "folds_profitable": 4,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 20
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-15m-gold-rr2",
   "slug": "crt-15m-gold",
   "timeframe": "15m",
   "market": "XAUUSD",
   "min_rr": 2,
   "run_id": "run_eace1d1da7",
   "trades": 1748,
   "win_rate": 33.01,
   "expectancy_r": 0.0496,
   "total_r": 86.78,
   "profit_factor": 1.062,
   "max_drawdown_r": 74.27,
   "folds_profitable": 3,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 5
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-d-nas100-rr4",
   "slug": "crt-d-nas100",
   "timeframe": "Daily",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "min_rr": 4,
   "run_id": "run_e0189f0964",
   "trades": 32,
   "win_rate": 12.5,
   "expectancy_r": -0.5453,
   "total_r": -17.45,
   "profit_factor": 0.328,
   "max_drawdown_r": 21.74,
   "folds_profitable": 1,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 23
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-d-gold-rr4",
   "slug": "crt-d-gold",
   "timeframe": "Daily",
   "market": "XAUUSD",
   "min_rr": 4,
   "run_id": "run_1e782fac06",
   "trades": 27,
   "win_rate": 29.63,
   "expectancy_r": 0.4084,
   "total_r": 11.03,
   "profit_factor": 1.478,
   "max_drawdown_r": 5.0,
   "folds_profitable": 3,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 8
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-4h-nas100-rr4",
   "slug": "crt-4h-nas100",
   "timeframe": "4H",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "min_rr": 4,
   "run_id": "run_0f84f83fea",
   "trades": 25,
   "win_rate": 16.0,
   "expectancy_r": -0.3171,
   "total_r": -7.93,
   "profit_factor": 0.609,
   "max_drawdown_r": 12.54,
   "folds_profitable": 2,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 25
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-4h-gold-rr4",
   "slug": "crt-4h-gold",
   "timeframe": "4H",
   "market": "XAUUSD",
   "min_rr": 4,
   "run_id": "run_4be174698a",
   "trades": 42,
   "win_rate": 33.33,
   "expectancy_r": 0.215,
   "total_r": 9.03,
   "profit_factor": 1.297,
   "max_drawdown_r": 8.38,
   "folds_profitable": 3,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 19
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-1h-nas100-rr4",
   "slug": "crt-1h-nas100",
   "timeframe": "1H",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "min_rr": 4,
   "run_id": "run_04895a8640",
   "trades": 343,
   "win_rate": 24.78,
   "expectancy_r": -0.145,
   "total_r": -49.74,
   "profit_factor": 0.799,
   "max_drawdown_r": 52.77,
   "folds_profitable": 1,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 35
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-1h-gold-rr4",
   "slug": "crt-1h-gold",
   "timeframe": "1H",
   "market": "XAUUSD",
   "min_rr": 4,
   "run_id": "run_558d1f3454",
   "trades": 350,
   "win_rate": 24.0,
   "expectancy_r": -0.0678,
   "total_r": -23.72,
   "profit_factor": 0.878,
   "max_drawdown_r": 47.8,
   "folds_profitable": 2,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 24
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-15m-nas100-rr4",
   "slug": "crt-15m-nas100",
   "timeframe": "15m",
   "market": "NAS100",
   "min_rr": 4,
   "run_id": "run_0e88944232",
   "trades": 1203,
   "win_rate": 22.19,
   "expectancy_r": -0.0997,
   "total_r": -119.89,
   "profit_factor": 0.875,
   "max_drawdown_r": 158.51,
   "folds_profitable": 1,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 32
  },
  {
   "variant": "crt-15m-gold-rr4",
   "slug": "crt-15m-gold",
   "timeframe": "15m",
   "market": "XAUUSD",
   "min_rr": 4,
   "run_id": "run_ef52441b21",
   "trades": 1185,
   "win_rate": 22.53,
   "expectancy_r": 0.0528,
   "total_r": 62.59,
   "profit_factor": 1.043,
   "max_drawdown_r": 118.19,
   "folds_profitable": 2,
   "folds": 5,
   "verdict": "reject",
   "verdict_word": "not this time",
   "shuffled_price_as_good_or_better": 13
  }
 ],
 "holdout": {
  "test": 25,
  "status": "pre-registered, not yet run",
  "rule": "4H key-times CRT, minimum 1:1 reward to risk, as tested in crt-4h-nas100 and crt-4h-gold",
  "markets": [
   "NAS100",
   "XAUUSD"
  ],
  "period": {
   "start": "2018-04-13",
   "end": "2021-09-30"
  },
  "data": "Dukascopy bid prices (not the MT5 feed of the 24 tests); see holdout-data.md",
  "confirmed_if": [
   "average result per trade above zero, on both markets",
   "reshuffled price as good or better in at most 2 of 40 runs, on both markets",
   "at least 100 trades on each market"
  ],
  "rules": "studies/crt/rules.md, revision 4",
  "result": null
 }
}